Value Sires Part IV: First Juveniles

In this week's installment of Value Sires, we arrive at the young pretenders on the cusp of a moment of reckoning. We dissected their credentials when they retired to stud, analysed the early returns of their first foals and watched in earnest how the market perceived their yearlings. Now, the true test is upon them; in a few short months, they will begin to reshuffle their ranks by the only measure that really matters: progeny racetrack performance.

The most fascinating aspect of this sire crop as a whole thus far has been that the top four by weanling and yearling averages are all by sires who stand outside of Europe: Saxon Warrior (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), Zoustar (Aus) (Northern Meteor {Aus}), Roaring Lion (Kitten's Joy) and US Navy Flag (War Front).

Saxon Warrior was the result of Coolmore sending its G1 Moyglare Stud S. winner Maybe (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) to Hokkaido for two dates with Japan's perennial champion sire Deep Impact (Jpn), of which he was the second foal. Saxon Warrior was unbeaten in three starts at two, including the G2 Beresford S. and the G1 Racing Post Trophy over Roaring Lion, and he rolled right into the G1 2000 Guineas the following spring, posting a

1 1/2-length victory. Saxon Warrior wouldn't win again but wasn't disgraced either, placing in the G1 Irish Derby, G1 Coral-Eclipse and G1 Irish Champion S. before retiring with an official rating of 121. Saxon Warrior was leading first-crop sire by average at the 2020 foal sales and last year's yearling sales; his 17 foals sold in 2020 averaged €110,617/£94,098, while his 55 yearlings sold last year averaged €136,937/£116,489-excellent returns for an initial €27,500 stud fee. Deep Impact, as potent as he himself was, hasn't yet set the world alight as a sire of sires, though he has a few excellent colts who will still get their chances. Saxon Warrior stays at €20,000 for the second straight year at Coolmore.

While the global bloodstock world has become very smitten with Deep Impact, Northern Meteor-a grandson of Sadler's Wells's full-brother Fairy King–is a lesser-known quantity. That will change, however, should Zoustar's first Northern Hemisphere crop transfer their potency in the sales ring onto the racecourse: he was second-leading sire by average at the yearling sales, edging his late, former Tweenhills stud barn companion Roaring Lion at €90,088/£76,616 for horses bred on a £25,000 opening fee. Zoustar is, of course, not an unproven sire at all, already holding multiple titles in Australia, and it was in the midst of his early heydays there that the fee for his second season in Britain actually increased to £30,000. He is now back to £25,000.

US Navy Flag's credentials are hard to fault, being a champion 2- and 3-year-old out of a multiple Group 1 and Classic winner at two and three who is a full-sister to a Classic winner. US Navy Flag ran 11 times at two and was the first horse to complete the Middle Park/Dewhurst double since Diesis (GB) in 1982. And, he trained on to win the G1 July Cup at three. US Navy Flag started at €25,000 at Coolmore and is a very enticing proposition down to €12,500 this year. He had 42 yearlings sell at the sales last year for an average of €71,869/£61,142. Another tough 2-year-old in this sire crop from Coolmore is Sioux Nation, and he looks to become the next son of Scat Daddy to make an impact at stud. He won the G2 Norfolk S. and G1 Phoenix S. in seven starts at two and was a Group 3 winner and Group 1 placed at three. Sioux Nation is available for €10,000 this year.

Darley likewise offers a multiple Group 1-winning sprinter in this cohort: the Cartier champion Harry Angel (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), who stands at Dalham Hall Stud for £12,500, down from an initial £20,000. From the red hot Dark Angel/Acclamation sireline, Harry Angel won the G2 Mill Reef S. in his second start at two and trained on to add the G1 July Cup and G1 Sprint Cup at three and the G2 Duke Of York S. at four. His 48 yearlings sold last year averaged €58,649/£49,883. Also under the Darley banner at Haras du Logis in Normandy is Cloth Of Stars (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), a beautifully bred Group 1 winner who was the first colt home in the 2017 and 2018 Arcs. He too, looks good value at €7,000, his first yearlings having averaged €45,149/£38,397 off his initial €7,500 fee. Shadwell's multiple group-winning and Group 1-placed sprinter Tasleet (GB) (Showcasing {GB}) is available for £5,000 this year, as is Tweenhills's G1 Sussex S. winner Lightning Spear (GB) (Pivotal {GB}). Tally-Ho's dual group-winning juvenile Kessaar (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) has received a lot of support, and he is down to €5,000 from an initial €8,000.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: Havana Grey (GB) (Havana Gold {Ire}) (Whitsbury Manor Stud, £6,000) – A Group 1-winning sire from the Galileo line and out of a mare by the speedy Dark Angel (Ire), Havana Grey has been the subject of excellent support since retiring to Whitsbury Manor Stud and will certainly have the numbers to make an impact: he had 80 yearlings go through the ring last autumn, more than any other sire in this cohort, and 70 sold for an average of €35,522/£30,137, bred off an £8,000 opening fee. And should they inherit his talent and that within his pedigree, they will stand in good stead. Havana Grey is out of the six-time winner Blanc De Chine (Ire), and he ran eight times at two for four wins including the G3 Molecomb S. over Invincible Army (Ire), and was second in the G1 Prix Morny. Back to run an additional eight times at three, all over five furlongs, Havana Grey won the G2 Sapphire S. at The Curragh and, two starts later, added the G1 Flying Five S. Havana Grey's first 2-year-olds should be expected to come out running, and if they follow in their sire's footsteps they won't be stopping anytime soon, either.

Silver: Expert Eye (GB) (Acclamation {GB}) (Juddmonte, £10,000) – At fully half his debut fee, Expert Eye is an enticing value prospect for 2022. By the red-hot sire of sires Acclamation, Expert Eye is out of a Dansili (GB) mare who won at two and is a half-sister to dual Classic winner Special Duty (GB) (Hennessy), who also won the G1 Cheveley Park S. and G2 Prix Robert Papin at two. The precocity in Expert Eye's pedigree shone through in his 2-year-old campaign, when he won on debut in June before taking the G2 Vintage S. A 4 1/2-length win in the G3 Jersey S. and a victory in the G3 City of York S. at three bookended a second in the G1 Sussex S., and Expert Eye was third in the G1 Prix du Moulin before traveling to Churchill Downs to take the GI Breeders' Cup Mile. A high-class 2-year-old who trained on to win a Breeders' Cup race, Expert Eye has been well supported and his yearlings averaged €52,453/£44,505.

Gold: Cracksman (GB) (Frankel {GB}) (Darley Dalham Hall, £17,500) – Cracksman was, quite simply, one of the best racehorses not only of his generation, but that we have seen over the past decade, his official rating of 130 upon retirement trailing only his own sire Frankel (140), Sea The Stars (Ire) (136) and Harbinger (135) among European colts in the past 10 years. Out of the stakes-winning Pivotal (GB) mare Rhadegunda (GB)-herself a granddaughter of the G1 1000 Guineas winner On The House (Be My Guest)-Cracksman won his lone start at two. He won the Investec Derby Trial first out at three and went into the Derby in just his third lifetime start, but missed by a length when third, and a neck when second in the G1 Irish Derby. Dropped back slightly in class for the G2 Great Voltigeur S., Cracksman won by six lengths before venturing to Chantilly to take the G2 Prix Niel by 3 1/2 lengths. Next up was the G1 Champion S., in which Cracksman came home a seven-length winner over Poet's Word (GB) (Poet's Voice {GB})–who would go on to win the following season's G1 Prince of Wales's S. and G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S.-and sealed Cartier 3-year-old honours. Brought back in 2018 at four, Cracksman added victories in the G1 Prix Ganay and G1 Coronation Cup before defending his Champion S. title in an equally stirring performance, coming home six lengths the best. Cracksman had 52 yearlings sell at the sales last autumn, averaging €70,771/£60,042.